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ObjectivesTo estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and CVD management using routinely collected medication data as a proxy. DesignDescriptive and interrupted time series analysis using anonymised individual-level population-scale data for 1.32 billion records of dispensed CVD medications across 15.8 million individuals in England, Scotland and Wales. SettingCommunity dispensed CVD medications with 100% coverage from England, Scotland and Wales, plus primary care prescribed CVD medications from England (including 98% English general practices). Participants15.8 million individuals aged 18+ years alive on 1st April 2018 dispensed at least one CVD medicine in a year from England, Scotland and Wales. Main outcome measuresMonthly counts, percent annual change (1st April 2018 to 31st July 2021) and annual rates (1st March 2018 to 28th February 2021) of medicines dispensed by CVD/ CVD risk factor; prevalent and incident use. ResultsYear-on-year change in dispensed CVD medicines by month were observed, with notable uplifts ahead of the first (11.8% higher in March 2020) but not subsequent national lockdowns. Using hypertension as one example of the indirect impact of the pandemic, we observed 491,203 fewer individuals initiated antihypertensive treatment across England, Scotland and Wales during the period March 2020 to end May 2021 than would have been expected compared to 2019. We estimated that this missed antihypertension treatment could result in 13,659 additional CVD events should individuals remain untreated, including 2,281 additional myocardial infarctions (MIs) and 3,474 additional strokes. Incident use of lipid-lowering medicines decreased by an average 14,793 per month in early 2021 compared with the equivalent months prior to the pandemic in 2019. In contrast, the use of incident medicines to treat type-2 diabetes (T2DM) increased by approximately 1,642 patients per month. ConclusionsManagement of key CVD risk factors as proxied by incident use of CVD medicines has not returned to pre-pandemic levels in the UK. Novel methods to identify and treat individuals who have missed treatment are urgently required to avoid large numbers of additional future CVD events, further adding indirect cost of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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ObjectivesTo provide estimates for how different treatment pathways for the management of severe aortic stenosis (AS) may affect NHS England waiting list duration and associated mortality. DesignWe constructed a mathematical model of the excess waiting list and found the closed-form analytic solution to that model. From published data, we calculated estimates for how the following strategies may affect the time to clear the backlog of patients waiting for treatment and the associated waiting list mortality. Interventions1) increasing the capacity for the treatment of severe AS, 2) converting proportions of cases from surgery to transcatheter aortic valve implantation, and 3) a combination of these two. ResultsIn a capacitated system, clearing the backlog by returning to pre-COVID-19 capacity is not possible. A conversion rate of 50% would clear the backlog within 666 (95% CI, 533-848) days with 1419 (95% CI, 597-2189) deaths whilst waiting during this time. A 20% capacity increase would require 535 (95% CI, 434-666) days, with an associated mortality of 1172 (95% CI, 466-1859). A combination of converting 40% cases and increasing capacity by 20% would clear the backlog within a year (343 (95% CI, 281-410) days) with 784 (95% CI, 292-1324) deaths whilst awaiting treatment. ConclusionA strategy change to the management of severe AS is required to reduce the NHS backlog and waiting list deaths during the post-COVID-19 recovery period. However, plausible adaptations will still incur a substantial wait and many hundreds dying without treatment.
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BackgroundDeaths in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in England & Wales have been shown to be unevenly distributed socioeconomically and geographically. However, the full scale of inequalities may have been underestimated as most measures of excess mortality do not adequately account for varying age profiles of deaths between social groups. We measured years of life lost (YLL) attributable to the pandemic, directly or indirectly, comparing mortality across geographic and socioeconomic groups. MethodsYLL for registered deaths in England & Wales, from 27th December 2014 until 25th December 2020, were calculated using 2019 single year sex-specific life tables for England & Wales. Panel time-series models were used to estimate expected YLL by sex, geographical region, and deprivation quintile between 7th March 2020 and 25th December 2020 by cause: direct deaths (COVID-19 and other respiratory diseases), cardiovascular disease & diabetes, cancer, and other indirect deaths - all other causes). Excess YLL during the pandemic period were calculated by subtracting observed from expected values. Additional analyses focused on excess deaths for region and deprivation strata, by age-group. FindingsBetween 7th March 2020 and 25th December 2020 there were an estimated 763,550 (95% CI: 696,826 to 830,273) excess YLL in England & Wales, equivalent to a 15% (95% CI: 14 to 16) increase in YLL compared to the equivalent time period in 2019. There was a strong deprivation gradient in all-cause excess YLL, with rates per 100,000 population ranging from (916; 95% CI: 820 to 1,012) for the least deprived quintile to (1,645; 95% CI: 1,472 to 1,819) for the most deprived. The differences in excess YLL between deprivation quintiles were greatest in younger age groups; for all-cause deaths, an average of 9.1 years per death (95% CI: 8.2 to 10.0) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 10.8 (95% CI: 10.0 to 11.6) in the most deprived; for COVID-19 and other respiratory deaths, an average of 8.9 years per death (95% CI: 8.7 to 9.1) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 11.2 (95% CI: 11.0 to 11.5) in the most deprived. There was marked variability in both all-cause and direct excess YLL by region, with the highest rates in both in the North West. InterpretationDuring 2020, the first calendar year of the COVID-19 pandemic, longstanding socioeconomic and geographical health inequalities in England & Wales were exacerbated, with the most deprived areas suffering the greatest losses in potential years of life lost. FundingNone
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BackgroundAortic stenosis requires timely treatment with either surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) or transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). This study aimed to investigate the indirect impact of COVID-19 on national SAVR and TAVR activity and outcomes. MethodsThe UK TAVR Registry and the National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit were used to identify all TAVR and SAVR procedures in England, between January 2017 and June 2020. The number of isolated AVR, AVR+coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery, AVR+other surgery and TAVR procedures per month was calculated. Separate negative binomial regression models were fit to monthly procedural counts, with functions of time as covariates, to estimate the expected change in activity during COVID-19. ResultsWe included 13376 TAVR cases, 12328 isolated AVR cases, 7829 AVR+CABG cases, and 6014 AVR+Other cases. Prior to March 2020 (UK lockdown), monthly TAVR activity was rising, with a slight decrease in SAVR activity during 2019. We observed a rapid and significant drop in TAVR and SAVR activity during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially for elective cases. Cumulatively, over the period March to June 2020, we estimated an expected 2294 (95% CI 1872, 2716) cases of severe aortic stenosis who have not received treatment. ConclusionThis study has demonstrated a significant decrease in TAVR and SAVR activity in England following the COVID-19 outbreak. This situation should be monitored closely, to ensure that monthly activity rapidly returns to expected levels. There is potential for significant backlog in the near-to-medium term, and potential for increased mortality in this population.
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ObjectivesTo examine short-term primary causes of death after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in a national cohort before and during COVID-19. BackgroundPublic reporting of PCI outcomes is a performance metric and a requirement in many healthcare systems. There are inconsistent data on the causes of death after PCI, and what proportion of these are attributable to cardiac causes. MethodsAll patients undergoing PCI in England between 1st January 2017 and 10th May 2020 were retrospectively analysed (n=273,141), according to their outcome from the date of PCI; no death and in-hospital, post-discharge, and 30-day death. ResultsThe overall rates of in-hospital and 30-day death were 1.9% and 2.8%, respectively. The rate of 30-day death declined between 2017 (2.9%) and February 2020 (2.5%), mainly due to lower in-hospital death (2.1% vs. 1.5%), before rising again from 1st March 2020 (3.2%) due to higher rates of post-discharge mortality. Only 59.6% of 30-day deaths were due to cardiac causes, the most common being acute coronary syndrome, cardiogenic shock and heart failure, and this persisted throughout the study period. 10.4% of 30-day deaths after 1st March 2020 were due to confirmed COVID-19. ConclusionsIn this nationwide study, we show that 40% of 30-day deaths are due to non-cardiac causes. Non-cardiac deaths have increased even more from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, with one in ten deaths from March 2020 being COVID-19 related. These findings raise a question of whether public reporting of PCI outcomes should be cause-specific.
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BackgroundDeaths during the COVID-19 pandemic result directly from infection and exacerbation of other diseases and indirectly from deferment of care for other conditions, and are socially and geographically patterned. We quantified excess mortality in regions of England and Wales during the pandemic, for all causes and for non-COVID-19 associated deaths. MethodsWeekly mortality data for 1 Jan 2010 to 1 May 2020 for England and Wales were obtained from the Office of National Statistics. Mean-dispersion negative binomial regressions were used to model death counts based on pre-pandemic trends and exponentiated linear predictions were subtracted from: i) all-cause deaths; and ii) all-cause deaths minus COVID-19 related deaths for the pandemic period (07-13 March to 25 April to 8 May). FindingsBetween 7 March and 8 May 2020, there were 47,243 (95%CI: 46,671 to 47,815) excess deaths in England and Wales, of which 9,948 (95%CI: 9,376 to 10,520) were not associated with COVID-19. Overall excess mortality rates varied from 49 per 100,000 (95%CI: 49 to 50) in the South West to 102 per 100,000 (95%CI: 102 to 103) in London. Non-COVID-19 associated excess mortality rates ranged from -1 per 100,000 (95%CI: -1 to 0) in Wales (i.e. mortality rates were no higher than expected) to 26 per 100,000 (95%CI: 25 to 26) in the West Midlands. InterpretationThe COVID-19 pandemic has had markedly different impacts on the regions of England and Wales, both for deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 infection and for deaths resulting from the national public health response. FundingNone
